2024 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun federal by-election

Federal by-election in Quebec, Canada
2024 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun by-election

← 2021 September 16, 2024 (2024-09-16) 45th →

Riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
 
LPC
BQ
Candidate Laura Palestini Louis-Philippe Sauvé
Party Liberal Bloc Québécois
Last election 42.93% 22.09%

 
NDP
CPC
Candidate Craig Sauvé Louis Ialenti
Party New Democratic Conservative
Last election 19.36% 7.45%

Incumbent MP

Vacant



A by-election is set to be held in the federal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in Quebec, Canada, on September 16, 2024, following the resignation of incumbent Liberal MP David Lametti.

While the riding is considered a "stronghold" for the Liberals, the by-election is expected by some to be a close race between the Liberals and the NDP, who are running "well known" Montreal city councillor Craig Sauvé.[1] The by-election is expected to be a three-way marginal with the Bloc Québécois also having strong support in the riding.[2]

The by-election will be held on the same day as one in Elmwood—Transcona in Manitoba.[3]

Background

The riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun was vacated on February 1, 2024, following the resignation of Liberal MP David Lametti.[4] Lametti, who previously served as Minister of Justice and Attorney General in the government of Justin Trudeau, won the seat in 2015.

Constituency

The constituency is an urban Francophone riding located in the southwestern part of Montreal containing parts of the boroughs of Le Sud-Ouest, Verdun and LaSalle.[5] The riding has been held by the Liberals since its creation in 2015. Prior to 2015, this area of the city was split into two different ridings, with Verdun being in one riding (Jeanne-Le Ber from 2004 to 2016) and the LaSalle and Ville-Émard areas being in another (LaSalle—Émard from 1988 to 2015). Both ridings went NDP during the "orange wave" of the 2011 Canadian federal election. Prior to 2011, the LaSalle—Émard area has been reliably Liberal, while Verdun has been less-so, with the Bloc holding it from 2006 to 2011.

Candidates

The total of 91 candidates broke the record for the longest list of candidates in a federal by-election.[6]

Ballot
Ballot comprising 91 candidates

On July 19, Montreal city councillor Laura Palestini was selected by the Liberals as their candidate over others seeking the nomination[7] such as Eddy Kara, a political strategist,[8] Christopher Baenninger, Quebec Liberal candidate in Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques in 2022 and Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne in 2023,[9] and Lori Morrison, Electoral Division 1 Commissioner of the Lester B. Pearson School Board.[9] The party approached Charles Milliard, president of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec, to run as their candidate in the by-election. He ultimately declined to run, preferring running in the 2025 Quebec Liberal Party leadership election.[10]

On March 28, Craig Sauvé, independent city councillor for the district of Saint-Henri—Little-Burgundy—Pointe-Saint-Charles announced that he was standing for nomination for the New Democratic Party's candidate.[11] He was officially nominated as the candidate on April 28.[12]

On July 19, the Conservative Party announced that their candidate would be Louis Ialenti, a small business owner. He was previously the Conservative candidate for Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel in 2021.[13]

The Bloc Québécois candidate will be Louis-Philippe Sauvé, the communications and administration coordinator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics.[14]

Gregory Yablunovsky will be the PPC candidate. He was previously the party's candidate in Saint-Laurent in 2021 and La Prairie in 2019.[15]

On May 27, it was announced that Jency Mercier had won the nomination race for the Green Party.[16]

Alain Paquette will be the Christian Heritage Party candidate.[17]

On July 17, the Rhinoceros Party announced that party leader Sébastien CoRhino would be the candidate.[18]

The Longest Ballot Committee announced that they are targeting the LaSalle—Émard—Verdun by-election[19] resulting in 77 independent candidates affiliated to the organization running in this seat.[20]

On August 14, the newly formed Canadian Future Party announced their candidate in the election, Mark Khoury.[21]

Campaign

It was reported that Liberal campaign materials omitted the image of Justin Trudeau, unlike other parties which used their party leaders picture.[22] The unpopularity of the federal government has been a consideration.[23] Senior Liberal figures consider the by-election a "must-win".[24]

Opinion polls

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link LPC BQ NDP CPC PPC Green Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research July 9, 2024 [25] 29 26 25 14 1 3 ±5.4 pp 329 IVR
Election 2021 September 20, 2021 42.93 22.09 19.36 7.45 3.38 3.04 47,360

Results

11,000 people voted in advance polling.[26]

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Canadian federal by-election, September 16, 2024: LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
Resignation of David Lametti
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Laura Palestini
Bloc Québécois Louis-Philippe Sauvé
New Democratic Craig Sauvé
Conservative Louis Ialenti
People's Gregory Yablunovsky
Green Jency Mercier
Canadian Future Mark Khoury
Christian Heritage Alain Paquette
Marijuana Steve Berthelot
Marxist–Leninist Normand Chouinard
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino
Independent Martin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville
Independent Alex Banks
Independent Nassim Barhoumi
Independent Christian Baril
Independent Réal BatRhino Martel
No Affiliation Myriam Beaulieu
Independent Michael Bednarski
Independent Line Bélanger
Independent Mylène Bonneau
Independent Jeani Boudreault
Independent Alain Bourgault
Independent Erle Stanley Bowman
Independent Jaël Champagne Gareau
Independent Peter Barry Clarke
Independent Marc Corriveau
Independent Martin Croteau
Independent John Dale
Independent Andrew Davidson
Independent Mark Dejewski
No Affiliation Manon Marie Lili Desbiens
Independent Gerrit Dogger
Independent Samuel Ducharme
Independent Ysack Dupont
Independent Donovan Eckstrom
Independent Alexandra Engering
Independent David Erland
Independent Dji-Pé Frazer
Independent Daniel Gagnon
Independent Jacques-Eric Guy
Independent Anthony Hamel
Independent Felix-Antoine Hamel
Independent Blake Hamilton
Independent Judy D. Hill
No Affiliation Fang Hu
Independent Ryan Huard
Independent Krzysztof Krzywinski
Independent Alain Lamontagne
No Affiliation Katy Le Rougetel
Independent Marie-Hélène LeBel
Independent Danny Légaré
Independent Charles Lemieux
Independent Connie Lukawski
Independent Glen MacDonald
Independent Harout Manougian
Independent Antony George Ernest Marcil
Independent Agnieszka Marszalek
Independent Matéo Martin
Independent Mark Moutter
Independent Yusuf Nasihi
Independent Winston Neutel
Independent John Francis O'Flynn
Independent Lanna Palsson
Independent Guillaume Paradis
Independent Grayson Pollard
Independent Lajos Polya
Independent Lorant Polya
Independent Spencer Rocchi
Independent Wallace Richard Rowat
Independent Pierre Samson
Independent Timothy Schoen
Independent Julian Selody
Independent Roger Sherwood
Independent Michael Skirzynski
Independent Adam Smith
Independent Julie St-Amand
Independent Pascal St-Amand
Independent Mário Stocco
Independent Daniel St-Pierre
Independent Patrick Strzalkowski
Independent Daniel Stuckless
Independent Benjamin Teichman
Independent John "The Engineer" Turmel
Independent Darcy Justin Vanderwater
Independent Gavin Vanderwater
Independent Hans Armando Vargas
Independent Laura Vegys
Independent Marie-Eve Vermette
Independent Elliot Wand
Independent Jordan Wong
Independent Tina Jiu Ru Zhu
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

2021 results

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2021 Canadian federal election: LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Liberal David Lametti 20,330 42.93 -0.60 $55,842.59
Bloc Québécois Raphaël Guérard 10,461 22.09 -2.00 $9,992.28
New Democratic Jason De Lierre 9,168 19.36 +2.89 $2,674.57
Conservative Janina Moran 3,530 7.45 +0.41 $714.88
People's Michel Walsh 1,600 3.38 +2.44 $2,295.27
Green Sarah Carter 1,439 3.04 -3.80 $0.00
Free Pascal Antonin 636 1.34 N/A $2.73
Communist J.P. Fortin 196 0.41 N/A $0.00
Total valid votes/expense limit 47,360 97.86 $110,554.58
Total rejected ballots 1,036 2.14 +0.52
Turnout 48,396 60.59 -3.78
Registered voters 79,869
Liberal hold Swing +0.70
Source: Elections Canada[27]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Montreal byelection expected to be a tight race between Liberals, NDP: analyst". CTV News. 29 July 2024. Retrieved 2 August 2024.
  2. ^ Tasker, John Paul; Boudjikanian, Raffy (September 6, 2024). "Trudeau's Liberals face another big test in Montreal byelection - NDP, Bloc Québécois hoping voters tired of Trudeau will help them take long-time Liberal seat". CBC News.
  3. ^ "Trudeau déclenche deux élections partielles, dont une dans LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". La Presse (in Canadian French). 2024-07-28. Retrieved 2024-08-03.
  4. ^ "Former justice minister David Lametti resigning as Liberal MP to join law firm". The Province. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
  5. ^ "Canada election results: LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved 2024-08-03.
  6. ^ "LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding breaks record for longest list of candidates in federal byelection | Watch News Videos Online". Global News. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
  7. ^ "Montreal city councillor to represent Liberals in byelection". CBC News. 19 July 2024. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
  8. ^ Saba, Michel (23 July 2024). "Decision to parachute Trudeau's choice into Montreal byelection shocks would-be candidates". Montreal Gazette. The Canadian Press. Retrieved 24 July 2024.
  9. ^ a b Labbé, Jérôme (19 July 2024). "Le PLC recrute une conseillère municipale pour la partielle dans LaSalle–Émard–Verdun". Radio-Canada. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
  10. ^ Thomas Laberge (August 13, 2024). "Élection partielle dans LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | Milliard a « considéré » puis « refusé » de se lancer pour le PLC". La Presse (in French). Retrieved August 25, 2024.
  11. ^ @CraigSauve (March 28, 2024). "Grosse annonce aujourd'hui ! 🧡 Merci tout le monde pour les très nombreux messages de soutien ! 🙏 // Big announcement today! 🧡 Thank you for the many messages of support! 🙏 #polcan #cdnpoli #polmtl" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  12. ^ "Lasalle--Émard--Verdun NDP Nomination Meeting". New Democratic Party of Canada. Retrieved 12 April 2024.
  13. ^ Serebrin, Jacob (19 July 2024). "Liberals, Conservatives select candidates for Montreal byelection". Montreal Gazette. Postmedia Network. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
  14. ^ Séguin, Charles (2024-07-28). "Deux élections partielles fédérales auront lieu le 16 septembre". Radio-Canada (in French). Retrieved 2024-07-31.
  15. ^ "Gregory Yablunovsky". People's Party of Canada. Retrieved 12 April 2024.
  16. ^ "Jency Mercier to run in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". Green Party of Canada. 27 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  17. ^ "Alain Paquette - LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". Christian Heritage Party of Canada. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
  18. ^ "The people of LaSalle - Ville Émard - Verdun have endorsed Sébastien CoRhino as their candidate for the soon to be announced by-election". Facebook. Rhinoceros Party. 17 July 2024. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
  19. ^ Bryan Passifiume (July 16, 2024). "Long-ballot protesters try to snarl another byelection after breaking record in Toronto—St. Paul's". National Post. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
  20. ^ Audrey Sanikopoulos (August 27, 2024). "Protestation contre le système électoral: 91 candidats inscrits pour l'élection partielle de LaSalle-Émard-Verdun". Le Journal de Montréal (in French). Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  21. ^ Nick Murray (August 14, 2024). "Canadian Future Party launches, will field candidates in upcoming byelections". CBC News. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
  22. ^ Forrest, Maura (September 5, 2024). "No photos of Trudeau on campaign signs in Montreal riding ahead of byelection Other major party campaign signs feature photos of their leaders". CBC News. {{cite web}}: line feed character in |title= at position 78 (help)
  23. ^ Madoc-Jones, Gareth; Patterson, Kelsey (2024-08-31). "Montreal byelection: what's next for Trudeau if Liberals lose?". CityNews Montreal. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
  24. ^ "Liberals face must-win by-election in Montreal as they try to hold onto their base". The Globe and Mail. 2024-09-11. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
  25. ^ @CanadianPolling (July 11, 2024). "LaSalle-Emard-Verdun Byelection Polling:" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  26. ^ mporco (2024-09-10). "LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection: 11,000 vote in advance polling". CityNews Montreal. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
  27. ^ "Official Voting Results — LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". Elections Canada. Retrieved 31 August 2024.